What
is the purpose of performance figures?
Performance figures are designed
primarily to facilitate comparisons of the investment performance of
different funds and different sectors.
In order to achieve this, performance
statistics must be calculated on an absolutely uniform basis, and must be
as closely to real-life returns as possible.
Performance figures are not particularly
designed to reveal the investment returns achieved by a particular
individual investor in one fund. This is much better achieved by
calculating the market value of a specific investment and comparing it to
the entry cost. Entry and exit points often have a dramatic effect on
performance calculations. Typically, standardised performance statistics
run from the first day of the month to the last day of the month at the
end of the period. Investors do not necessarily enter and exit funds on
the first and last of any month, so performance figures seldom give an
accurate indication of a particular investor's returns.
Standardised performance statistics are
useful, however, in comparing funds or sectors. Indeed, it is only by
having standardised figures calculated on a uniform basis that such
comparisons are possible.
What do the percentages in performance
statistics mean?
Not all data vendors calculate performance
figures in exactly the same way. It is therefore important to look
carefully at table notes and column headers to ensure that you understand
what you are looking at.
Profile's performance statistics are
presented mainly as the equivalent of annual compound returns.
"Compounding" assumes the re-investment of returns, and that
growth in subsequent years is earned on the original capital as well as
any amount reinvested.
A percentage of 10% over three years means
that the fund delivered a return of 10% per annum each year for three
years. At this rate of return, R1 000 grows to R1 331 by the end
of the third year. The absolute return, as it is called, is
therefore 33.1%.
Other statistics available include rolling
period returns, risk-adjusted returns (such as Sortino), and returns in
rand values.
Why does Profile use annual returns rather
than absolute returns?
If we imagine an investor looking at a
performance figure, the question we need to answer is: what does the
figure mean to the investor? Ideally, we want to present a figure that is
comparable, easy to interpret, and fairly universal. We feel annual
compound returns best fit the bill, partly because interest rates on
savings accounts and fixed deposits are generally quite well understood.
An investor looking at a unit trust fund
which has achieved 5% per annum over a certain period can make the
following statement: To earn the same return, I would need to have a
fixed deposit earning annual compound interest of 10% per annum.
Depending on the inflation and interest
rate environment, most investors will immediately have a pretty good idea
as to whether this is a good or bad return on investment.
We feel the same is not necessarily true of
absolute returns. Is 30% over three years a good return? As a first
reaction, many people will say yes. 30% sounds high. But in fact, 30% is
only 9.1% per annum – not a particularly good return in the equity
markets
The other advantage of annual returns is
that they allow comparisons across periods. Absolute returns are obviously
comparable across funds for the same period (1 year, 3 years, etc), but it
is not that easy to see how 3 year returns compare to 5 year returns. A
fund has returned 30% over 3 years and 40% over 5 years. How does that
compare? While a bit of thought will no doubt lead to the conclusion that
average annual performance over 5 years was not as good as over 3 years,
this is easier to see if the performance stats are presented as 9.14% p.a.
and 6.96% p.a.
How are dividends / distributions treated
in performance calculations?
In South Africa, unit trust management
companies typically declare dividends or distributions on the last day of
a month, and then pay those dividends anything from a few days to a month
later. Some funds declare on the last day of one month and pay on the last
day of the following month. This is usually done twice a year, sometimes
quarterly.
Performance statistics are by their nature
time-based (ie, over one year, or six months, or three years). Sounds
simple. But a year is 365 days (unless it’s a leap year), and a day is
24 hours.
If we are calculating a one year
performance figure to end December, to include exactly 365 full days we
must assume the investor held the investment from 09:00 on 1 Jun to 16:00
on 31 Dec. But if you buy units in South Africa on 1 Jan (assuming it wasn’t
a holiday), you would get the price at the end of the day, and any market
movement on that day is lost to the investor. In practice, therefore, you
would have a period of 364 days.
For this reason, we always buy units using
the price on the last day of a month. It’s as if you placed the order on
31 December, which means you were "in" the market from 09h00 on
1 January (again, ignoring the fact this is always a public holiday). For
the end point of the calculation we use the price of the following 31
December, which is like giving the sell order on that day and receiving
the price at the end of that trading day (which is how SA management
companies work).
This system isn’t perfect (some periods
do end up being 366 days), but it can be defended as at least "a full
year" in every instance.
All well and good, but what about dividends
and other distributions?
An investor in a typical SA equity fund
will receive two distributions a year; this must therefore be true for the
performance calculation as well. But take a fund (eg, the Allan Gray
Equity Fund) which declares dividends on 31 December and 30 June. If our
calculation period runs for a calendar year, the 30 June declaration is
not at issue. But should the investor qualify for the first or last
December distribution? Or both?
Given the logic above, in reality the
investor who places a buy order on 31 December with Allan Gray is buying cum
div, and will therefore receive the distribution. When he sells the
following 31 December, he is giving up his right to receive the
distribution (because he needs to be registered that night with the fund
as a unit holder to qualify, and he will be de-registered before the
distribution run commences because he has sold out).
For purposes of calculating performance
statistics, we therefore follow the same logic. In the example above, we
would use the first December distribution, not the second.
When and at what price are dividends /
distributions re-invested for purposes of performance calculations?
To simplify the calculation of performance
statistics, some data houses always reinvest the dividend the day after
declaration. So if a dividend is declared on 31 December, the program will
use the income received to buy further units on 2 January (presuming that
is the next trading day). Obviously the price on 2 January will be used as
the purchase price.
In reality, it seldom works like this. An
investor in the Allan Gray Equity Fund, for example, will in reality only
get paid on 31 January – a whole month later. If the distribution is
reinvested, it will be at the price ruling on 31 January. In the meantime
the market might have moved up or down by a significant percentage,
meaning the investor would get less or more units or re-investment
(compared to 2 January).
In order to keep performance statistics as
accurate and realistic as possible, we re-invest on the re-investment date
and at the re-investment price applicable on that day.
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